CTO Larsson

1. Framing: a decade of reflection

Larsson opens by noting it has been a while since his last YouTube video, having spent over a month rebuilding his course (now called "for the next decade"). Looking back at his first content from 2017, he draws a distinction between what has and has not changed:

• Unchanged: everything to do with people and their behaviour — "People, we are the same today, 10 years ago, 100 years ago, 1,000 years ago."
• Changed dramatically: tokenised assets, once a dream, are now routine; major nations supporting Bitcoin, once unthinkable, is now normal.

He singles out one claim from a decade ago that he believes is more true now: that there have never before been so many emerging technologies changing the world so quickly, and that the pace of change is accelerating. He originally made the point to explain his frustration that most people do not want to learn to invest in that change — which he frames as "literally a stake in the future".

2. AI and the "assets" thesis

• He cites an author's analogy asking how one would explain the bond market to cows: cows cannot understand the financial system that governs their lives. The implication is that we may be the "cows of the future", unable to comprehend the systems AI could build in 10–20 years.
• Historically, society rewarded intelligence plus action — agency and initiative. AI and AI agents will supply both at almost zero cost.
• From this follows his central conclusion: what remains that AI cannot copy is, in one word, assets.

His stated plan for the next decade is to show up daily, weekly and monthly to build, learn about and think about assets. He defines "assets" broadly:

• Financial assets — the most obvious category.
• Trust, friends, networks and relationships built on trust between people — these "won't go away".
• Technology — more important to society than a decade ago; he notes that among the world's ten largest assets by market cap, only tech companies and the commodities gold and silver appear, and that tech is where his background lets him add unique insight.

3. The cracking social model

His additional argument is that one should not assume the current model of society will look after people over the next 10 years the way it did over the past 10:

• The old path — study, get a job, build a career, buy a home, raise a family, pay taxes, retire on a pension — is "showing cracks in much of the Western world".
• He deliberately avoids discussing causes or which solutions are good or bad, but says all agree things are changing, and that people will be more on their own in future.
• Even under the most optimistic assumption of well-meaning governments, he does not think they can "pave the path for you" in this exponential, global digital age.
• His conclusion: do not be "a dead fish flowing downstream" — one must swim, perhaps harder and faster, against the current to prosper over the next decade.

4. Bitcoin: disclosure and technical picture

Disclosure: indirect long BTC exposure at the time of recording, which may change after publication; he does not personally hold or custody crypto assets directly. Education, not personal investment advice or a recommendation. Crypto is high risk; history does not predict the future; patterns can fail ^[1:2].

Technical observations, in his sequence:

• Bitcoin is showing hesitation but has not broken down its key support area. He has moved the level slightly a few times, yet clear support remains: each time price drops below it, it gets bought back up.
• Within the recent structure there was a double top; price broke below the low between the two tops, but that measured target has largely been met, so it matters less now.
• Zooming out, the trend is still up.
• The open question — retest and continuation, or eventual breakdown — cannot be predicted with accuracy without "a crystal ball"; the approach is to react to what actually plays out.

Cycle comparison:

He notes the one-year anniversary of the high (6 October 2025) has now passed, and that the historical consistency of roughly one-year, 80% bear markets is notable. Two interpretations remain open: a long consolidation with the recent high still acting as range resistance, or a simple retest preceding an upward continuation; the chart "hasn't really revealed itself yet".

5. Two narratives driving hesitation

1. Fear that AI super-intelligence could devise algorithms capable of breaking Bitcoin and cryptography generally — not quantum computing, just smarter algorithms. He calls this complete speculation at this stage; nobody knows whether it is possible.
2. Reports of compromised Ledger devices from resellers, fuelling fear about self-custody. He recalls a security video from some five to seven years ago advising buyers to purchase hardware wallets directly from the manufacturer rather than a reseller, because a reseller device could have been tampered with — a tip that he says has aged well.

He adds a behavioural point: people have short memories — one large up candle would likely erase all of this and restore enthusiasm.

6. Closing aside

He ends by remarking that the olives on the tree are not yet ripe, but that olive oil is made from them when they are.

Key takeaways

• The claims about markets are deliberately non-predictive: support is holding, trend is up, and both a continuation and a breakdown remain possible.
• The two bearish narratives (AI cracking cryptography; tampered hardware wallets) are characterised respectively as speculation and a known, avoidable operational risk.
• The strategic argument is that in an age where AI supplies intelligence and agency cheaply, ownership of assets — financial, relational and technological — is the durable edge.